Dollar Rallies, Sentiment Collapses as Fed Confirms Operation Twist
The FOMC rate decision proved an exciting event from a volatility standpoint; but we should look beyond the short-term impact and look more critically at what this means for the dollar and capital markets longer term. For a quick rundown of market reaction we note that the greenback advanced against all its major counterparts. Its advance against its benchmark counterpart, the euro, was meaningful at 0.94 percent; but the real progress was made on the high yield pairs: USDCAD dropped 1.5 percent; AUDUSD tumbled 2.3 percent and NZDUSD collapsed 2.8 percent.
While the move was clearly measured across the board; the fact that the pairs with the greatest yield differentials made the bigger moves tells us there was a critical ‘risk appetite’ component to this move. This is readily confirmed by the S&P 500 which plunged 2.9 percent – almost all of that progress coming post-rate decision.
Of the three scenarios that we laid out yesterday, the most probable option was ultimately the one the central bank took. The market coined this new Fed approach ‘Operation Twist’ in reference to a policy used back in the 1960’s in an effort to flatten the yield curve and promote capital inflows. The method this time around is similar; but the purpose is certainly different.
With the Fed’s announcement, the group started with justification stating that it sees “significant downside risks” in its economic outlook. That said, they need another means for promoting price stability and growth that doesn’t fall short like previous iterations. The outright buying program (QE2) from last year had a disturbing half life and was arguably targeting those players higher up in the financial food change (banks and financial institutions). Therefore, the shift was made away from the banks (a dangerous move perhaps given the present rise in global risks) to focus more on consumers and businesses.
According to the central bank, they will keep the size of the balance sheet roughly unchanged; but they will look to sell $400 billion in Treasuries that mature less than 3 years and buy $400 billion in government bonds that mature between 6 to 30 years in the future.
The purpose: to reduce longer-term rates that are used for mortgages, small business loans, student loans, etc.
As traders, we need to determine what this means for the market. For the US dollar, the threat of additional stimulus to devalue the currency is absent. On the other hand, this is an extension of the Fed’s previous adoption of the vow to keep rates exceptional low through mid-2013.
Yet, this balance may be tipped by risk trends themselves. There was a possibility of reviving moral hazard and outright speculative interest through this event; but that certainly didn’t materialize here. In other words, the policy group won’t put up a global bailout. That leaves us open to the global slowdown in growth, the natural deterioration in interest rates expectations (return) and the spread of the European financial crisis.
美元再起，马币（令吉）再跌，昨天是3.15 换一美元。。。
预料美元会继续上升。。。。到3.20。。。年底/年杪。。。。 可能会再上升。。。。
马币。。。。再跌。。。。。。。。就对有孩子在外国读书者。。。是一大压力。。
马币优势。。。。。一旦失去。。。。。。会怎样？？？
马股再下一城。。。。
这样的情况。。。会不会加速产业急速下跌？？？？
。。。。产业市场会有大问题。。。
避免在产业投资是对的。。。
产业市场应该会有很大的问题。。。。。。。。。。。。。。
KEEP CASH。。。。。。。。。
KEEP CASH。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。
KEEP CASH！
外资急速离开。。。。。他们看到。。。。。的问题是什么？？？
那鸡。。。。要在近期大选？？？？？？？？？？？
外资比本地资金提早离开。。。。。。
他们。。。宁可少赚。。。。。。。。。
到底他们看到了什么？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？
外资。。。他们全把钱移走。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。
下一场。。。外资会不会。。。。由产业市场撤离呢？？？？？？？？？？？？？？
可能性。。。。。。。。。。很高。。。。。。。。。。。。。。
接货的是你我他。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。？？？？？？？？
OH NO， NO， NO。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。
不要当接货人。。。。。。。。至少痛苦5年。。以上。。。。。。。。。。高价买得产业。。。。到时。。。如何能在市场上出售。。。。。。。
五年的痛苦。。。。。。。。。。。。。。除非你手头上有不少CASH。。。。。。。或者还有EPF 公积金。。。。。没有孩子要读大学。。。。。。。。。
问题，可能吗？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？？
88888888888888888
全球股市震盪現金才是王道？
撰文/Money錢雜誌
美國的信用評等遭標準普爾調降，加上歐債危機仍未解除，全球股市大幅震盪，黃金與瑞士法郎成了資金的避風港。但英國《經濟學人》雜誌分析，黃金受到資金的推升，已達到歷史高價，恐有泡沫的危機。此外，自2001年以來，瑞士法郎兌歐元的漲幅已高達40%，瑞士國家銀行就提出預警，瑞士法郎已被嚴重高估。在亂世之下，投資人應該持有什麼資產才是最安全的呢？答案竟然是：現金。
事實上， 金融巨鱷索羅斯（Soros）旗下的量子基金就持有了75% 的現金。而以價值型投資聞名，且精準預測到信用危機的FPA 資本基金經理人羅瑞蓋茲（Rodriguesz），在持有的旗艦基金中，現金部位超過30%。
更值得一提的是，全球最大債券公司PIMCO 執行長MohamedA El-Erian 強調， 不要低估現金的價值，尤其是在市場波動劇烈時，無論是優良或不良資產都會受到衝擊，也使優良資產的價格變得相對便宜，所以在他所管理的PIMCO 環球多元資產基金中，就保留了至少10% 的現金。
在詭譎多變的市場中，一旦股市止跌，持有現金的投資人，較能靈活地以相對低價買進，因此建議投資人不須恐慌，也切勿躁進，謹慎看待風險後，再等待時機進場。
◎更多精采內容請看：《Money錢》NO.48 2011年9月號
