KUALA LUMPUR: Malaysia's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) contracted for the 18th straight month in September, though at 48.6, this was the highest reading since January 2016.
HSBC Global Research said on Friday weak external demand remained a major drag, with new export orders sinking further and this could see Bank Negara Malaysia (BNM) reducing the Overnight Policy Rate (OPR) by another 25 basis points in its November meeting.
Its co-head of Asian economic research Frederic Neumann pointed out overall new orders dropped as well, albeit as a slower pace than before.
“Manufacturers also continue to face margin pressures, with the rise in input prices accelerating sharply, the highest in the survey history, and outpacing gains in output prices,” he said.
On the other hand, output prices rose at a softer pace in September, implying an ongoing margin squeeze.
“The PMI survey continues to suggest that manufacturing conditions in Malaysia are still weak, and that a recovery any time soon remains elusive.
“Worryingly, in contrast to the prior two months, overseas demand for Malaysian manufactured goods declined in September, with new export orders contracting at the sharpest pace in three months. This suggests that the tail-wind from the depreciation of the ringgit is fading for Malaysian exporters.
“Meanwhile, the (negative) gap between input and output prices widened further, suggesting that profit margins for Malaysia's manufacturers remain under pressure. In the coming months it is unlikely that this gap will narrow meaningfully, as soft local demand constrains the pricing power of companies,” he said.
Manufacturing is the country's largest employment sector alongside the wholesale and retail sectors. In general, however, labour market conditions remain soft, pushing the unemployment rate gradually higher (to 3.5% in July).
Neumann pointed out that unfortunately there is only so much the central bank and government can do to address the domestic slowdown.
The government's recalibrated 2016 budget will not provide any additional fiscal impulse, with the budget deficit to GDP ratio maintained at 3.1% of GDP versus an estimated 3.2% of GDP for 2015.





