論及實際應用，還是回到政經領域。上周三文章談論過，美國聯儲局會否加息，這是我們掌握不到的，但我們可議定結果出爐後，市場預期的反應及可行操作。日本央行剛推出「托長息」新政，又作出更長期寬鬆政策承諾，長遠效果無法預測，但持續強勢的日圓，有何啟示？
美國總統大選舉行在即，結果難料， 但重溫齊普拉斯（Alexis Tsiprs）贏得希臘大選後的發展，環球輿論有否過分誇大一旦特朗普當選總統的破壞力？
上述命題純粹是我個人有興趣的事， 但對你而言，是否必然有着思考價值？沒有的話，不要浪費時間，開拓自己獨有的思路。
http://aspire.sharesinv.com/34564/daniel-loh-us-stock-market-might-face-correction-regardless-who-wins-the-us-elections/?utm_source=si_home&utm_medium=si_desktop
US STOCK MARKET MIGHT FACE CORRECTION REGARDLESS WHO WINS THE US ELECTIONS???
This is from Daniel Loh
As the US elections (8th November 2016) draw closer, almost the entire world and especially investors are watching the elections closely. While the results might not directly concern the world, the future of the global economy might pretty much depend on who becomes the next US leader.
market bull run has been going on for
seven years now.
One might question, the interest rates, core inflation and employment rate in the US
were less than desirable, to say the least until recently, so are stock prices really a
reflection of fundamentals or pure
optimism (and delusion)?
How will all these affect the eastern side of the world, namely the Asia-Pacific region and more importantly, China?
To answer these questions, local stock guru and investment trainer Daniel Loh shared some of his insights and
perspectives for retail investors like us.
Daniel will also be speaking at our half-yearly Shares Investment Conference 2H2016 (Mandarin event) to cover
these topics in more detail, alongside other investment
experts such as Dr. Chan Yan Chong, Pauline Teo from 8I Education and Margaret Yang from CMC Markets.
when and not if.
The only reason for the delay in a Fed rate
hike is the election.
Daniel says that the Fed is doing this for
Hillary.
be a good opportunity for retail investors to pick up some corrected but fundamentally strong US stocks.
In the longer term, however, Daniel (and many other economists and investment experts)
thinks that Trump’s economic policies are bound to hurt Asia and of course, Singapore.
Most of Trump’s proposed policies are pro-US and anti-Asia.
Some include lowering corporate taxes to compete with Hong Kong and Singapore;
building the US to be energy-independent and cutting on oil imports; slapping tariffs
on Chinese goods to go in a trade war with China; and slapping taxes on US companies
that outsource their manufacturing outside of US among many other pro-US,
anti-Asia policies.
Daniel acknowledges Trump’s goal of bringing more jobs back to the US and
to stop China from becoming the number 1 economy in the next decade.
But this economic warfare, in Daniel’s view, would hurt Asia and indefinitely,
Singapore too, affecting multi-national corporations’ decisions to set up offices
and creating employment opportunities for Singapore.
As for the US bull run, Daniel explains we
must remember one thing: stock prices is not
a reflection of the fundamentals of the
companies but rather, a reflection of stocks performance compared to market
expectations.
Thus, as long as interest rates remain low, he would not be too worried about the US stock market’s health.
Money will continue to return to the stock market as long as corporate earnings
continue to beat market expectations.
watch on – when interest rates rise, investors
start to realise stocks can no longer
outperform market expectations.
That is when the US stock market will
head for a correction, at the very least.
